常州市江邊水泥制品有限公司
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中國混凝土與水泥制品協(xié)會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行部
Review and Prospect of Economic Operation of China's Concrete and Cement Products Industry in 2020 Economic Operation Department of China Concrete ＆ Cement-based Products Association
2020年，中國混凝土與水泥制品行業(yè)堅(jiān)決貫徹落實(shí)黨中央決策部署,努力做好疫情防控，快速實(shí)現(xiàn)復(fù)工復(fù)產(chǎn)，積極參與國家和地方抗疫工程建設(shè)，應(yīng)急保障功能凸顯。同時(shí)全行業(yè)篤行創(chuàng)新發(fā)展、綠色發(fā)展、智能化發(fā)展道路；攻堅(jiān)克難，加快行業(yè)供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)改革和高質(zhì)量發(fā)展，促進(jìn)行業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行實(shí)現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定增長，重點(diǎn)產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量和主要經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)再創(chuàng)新高。
一、2020年行業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行回顧
（一）主要產(chǎn)量和經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)概述
1. 主要產(chǎn)量
2020年行業(yè)重點(diǎn)產(chǎn)品如商品混凝土、混凝土壓力管、預(yù)制混凝土樁等累計(jì)產(chǎn)量均實(shí)現(xiàn)同比增長，并創(chuàng)下歷史新高（見表1）。
2. 主要經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)
2020年規(guī)模以上混凝土與水泥制品工業(yè)企業(yè)主營業(yè)務(wù)收入累計(jì)17906.51億元，比上一年增長3.8%；利潤總額累計(jì)873.33億元，比上一年增長6.67%。盡管增速較2019年明顯降低，但經(jīng)濟(jì)總量再創(chuàng)新高。
（二）2020年行業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行特點(diǎn)
1. 攻堅(jiān)克難，彰顯責(zé)任擔(dān)當(dāng)
一季度，在傳統(tǒng)淡季疊加疫情因素的雙重影響下，由于工期延誤、物流受阻、成本上漲，混凝土與水泥制品企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)及經(jīng)營管理均受到嚴(yán)重制約；二季度，在各地區(qū)各部門堅(jiān)決貫徹落實(shí)黨中央決策部署，科學(xué)統(tǒng)籌疫情防控和經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展，扎實(shí)做好“六穩(wěn)”工作、全面落實(shí)“六?！比蝿?wù)的背景下，全行業(yè)在第一時(shí)間復(fù)工復(fù)產(chǎn)、保障基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)，快速實(shí)現(xiàn)了較高水平的復(fù)工復(fù)產(chǎn)率。4月底，中國混凝土與水泥制品協(xié)會(huì)監(jiān)測的重點(diǎn)預(yù)制混凝土樁企業(yè)復(fù)工復(fù)產(chǎn)率達(dá)到95%，重點(diǎn)預(yù)拌混凝土企業(yè)復(fù)工復(fù)產(chǎn)率達(dá)到100%，重點(diǎn)房屋建筑預(yù)制混凝土構(gòu)件企業(yè)復(fù)工復(fù)產(chǎn)率達(dá)到100%。
在抗擊疫情期間，混凝土與水泥制品企業(yè)有力地保障了武漢雷神山、火神山醫(yī)院，河南版“小湯山醫(yī)院”，西安市公共衛(wèi)生中心等地方抗疫工程的建設(shè)，凸顯了行業(yè)在突發(fā)情況中的應(yīng)急保障功能。
2. 供給側(cè)有效發(fā)力，保障工程建設(shè)進(jìn)度快速恢復(fù)
受疫情影響，2020年一季度重點(diǎn)產(chǎn)品累計(jì)產(chǎn)量出現(xiàn)大幅萎縮；4月份開始重點(diǎn)細(xì)分行業(yè)生產(chǎn)實(shí)現(xiàn)快速恢復(fù)，重點(diǎn)產(chǎn)品如商品混凝土、預(yù)制混凝土樁當(dāng)月產(chǎn)量實(shí)現(xiàn)同比增長；8月份開始個(gè)別產(chǎn)品累計(jì)產(chǎn)量實(shí)現(xiàn)同比增長。
圖 1 重點(diǎn)產(chǎn)品2020年單月產(chǎn)量同比增長情況
Figure 1 Growth of monthly output of key products in 2020 compared with the same period last year
從細(xì)分產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)情況來看，商品混凝土作為基建先行產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)快速恢復(fù)，自4月份開始單月產(chǎn)量保持同比增長走勢，9月份開始實(shí)現(xiàn)累計(jì)產(chǎn)量同比增長。分區(qū)域來看全國六大區(qū)域只有華北地區(qū)全年產(chǎn)量出現(xiàn)同比下滑，其余五個(gè)區(qū)域累計(jì)產(chǎn)量均為同比上漲。
房屋建筑預(yù)制混凝土構(gòu)件市場恢復(fù)較好，4月份企業(yè)生產(chǎn)已恢復(fù)甚至超過上一年同期水平，部分地區(qū)如陜西、山東、上海、北京等地市場需求好于2019年。據(jù)不完全統(tǒng)計(jì)，2020年預(yù)制混凝土生產(chǎn)企業(yè)新增近200家，截止2020年底全國規(guī)模在3萬立方米以上的預(yù)制工廠已超過1200家。
預(yù)制混凝土樁企業(yè)復(fù)工之初經(jīng)營管理仍存在一定困難，隨著交通運(yùn)輸和上下游產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的逐步恢復(fù)，企業(yè)生產(chǎn)進(jìn)度快速提升。下半年市場明顯好轉(zhuǎn)，部分地區(qū)由于國家基建項(xiàng)目加大投入，預(yù)制混凝土樁需求較為旺盛，企業(yè)生產(chǎn)快速發(fā)力。據(jù)不完全統(tǒng)計(jì)，2020年新建預(yù)制混凝土樁生產(chǎn)廠20家左右，同時(shí)受環(huán)保節(jié)能政策的持續(xù)制約以及城市規(guī)劃的調(diào)整需要，部分預(yù)制混凝土樁企業(yè)停產(chǎn)整頓甚至關(guān)停退出市場，整體來看預(yù)制混凝土樁生產(chǎn)能力基本與上一年持平。
混凝土管涵企業(yè)在疫情中生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營活動(dòng)普遍恢復(fù)較快，尤其是協(xié)會(huì)重點(diǎn)監(jiān)測企業(yè)與上一年相比有不同程度的增長。據(jù)不完全統(tǒng)計(jì)目前我國各種規(guī)?；炷凉芎a(chǎn)企業(yè)約5000家。
在疫情困境中行業(yè)生產(chǎn)的快速恢復(fù)有效保障了工程建設(shè)進(jìn)度的提升，2020年前三季度累計(jì)固定資產(chǎn)投資增速實(shí)現(xiàn)由負(fù)轉(zhuǎn)正、全年固定資產(chǎn)投資同比增長2.9%，單季投資增速不斷提升、第四季度單季投資增速達(dá)到15.67%。
圖 2 2020年累計(jì)投資及當(dāng)季投資同比增速（單位：%）
Figure 2 Cumulative investment in 2020 and year-on-year growth rate of investment in the current quarter (unit:%)
與混凝土與水泥制品行業(yè)密切相關(guān)的建筑業(yè)2020年投資增速則實(shí)現(xiàn)近幾年最好水平，同比增長9.2%；基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資中的道路運(yùn)輸業(yè)、水利管理業(yè)投資實(shí)現(xiàn)小幅增長；房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資實(shí)現(xiàn)較快增長，全年投資同比增長7.0%。
圖 3 重點(diǎn)行業(yè)固定資產(chǎn)投資增速走勢（單位：%）
Figure 3 Growth trend of fixed asset investment in key industries (unit:%)
從細(xì)分?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)來看，2020年建筑業(yè)房屋建筑施工面積同比增長3.68%，高于2019年1.36個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資中建筑工程投資同比增長8.8%，是拉動(dòng)房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資的主要力量；商品房施工面積同比增長3.7%。交通固定資產(chǎn)投資實(shí)現(xiàn)較快增長，全年投資預(yù)計(jì)同比增長7.1%，其中公路水路投資增長10.4%。
3. 價(jià)格略有下降，一線與非一線城市存在較大價(jià)差
2020年，全國商品混凝土年度均價(jià)為437.5元/立方米，較上一年均價(jià)低7元/立方米；2020年協(xié)會(huì)重點(diǎn)監(jiān)測企業(yè)的房屋建筑預(yù)制混凝土構(gòu)件產(chǎn)品價(jià)格較上一年也有所下滑。
2020年原材料價(jià)格出現(xiàn)下滑，從全年走勢來看，水泥價(jià)格9月份開啟第二輪價(jià)格上漲，持續(xù)到12月底價(jià)格再次出現(xiàn)小幅下調(diào)；砂石價(jià)格4月份結(jié)束價(jià)格下行走勢，開始震蕩回升，6~8月南方梅雨季節(jié)期間再次震蕩回落，9月份再次邁入價(jià)格震蕩小幅回升通道。
上半年商品混凝土價(jià)格保持下行走勢，一方面一季度傳統(tǒng)淡季價(jià)格出現(xiàn)周期性下滑；另一方面疫情導(dǎo)致需求、供給受限，原材料價(jià)格在二季度下滑周期出現(xiàn)加速下滑的現(xiàn)象導(dǎo)致商品混凝土價(jià)格同步下降。商品混凝土價(jià)格上漲滯后于原材料價(jià)格1個(gè)月左右，國慶節(jié)之后才確立價(jià)格上行走勢。
圖 4 2020年原材料價(jià)格走勢（單位：元/噸）
Figure 4 Raw material price trend in 2020 (unit: yuan per ton)
協(xié)會(huì)監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)顯示，全國一線城市與非一線城市商品混凝土價(jià)格有較明顯價(jià)差，一線城市均價(jià)較非一線城市均價(jià)高57元/立方米左右；分地區(qū)來看，華北地區(qū)一線城市與非一線城市價(jià)格差最大，達(dá)到62元/立方米，價(jià)格差最小的是西北地區(qū)，一線城市與非一線城市價(jià)格差約為20元/立方米。
從一線城市與非一線城市商品混凝土價(jià)格走勢來看，2020年下半年華北地區(qū)一線城市均價(jià)保持下行走勢，非一線城市在年末則出現(xiàn)價(jià)格上漲走勢；四季度華東地區(qū)一線城市價(jià)格持續(xù)小幅上漲，非一線城市則出現(xiàn)先降后漲的走勢。同時(shí)也可以看出一線城市價(jià)格波動(dòng)活躍程度高于非一線城市，且波動(dòng)幅度更大。
圖 5 2019、2020全國商品混凝土均價(jià)走勢比較（單位：元/立方米）
Figure 5 Comparison of the average price trend of commercial concrete in China in 2019 and 2020(unit: yuan RMB per cubic meter)
2020年年末全國商品混凝土均價(jià)為433元/立方米，較年初下降18元/立方米，全國各省會(huì)城市、直轄市年末市場均價(jià)及與年初價(jià)格比較見表2。
4. 行業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模再創(chuàng)新高，成為建材工業(yè)重要支撐
在全行業(yè)企業(yè)克服疫情不利影響的共同努力下，2020年混凝土與水泥制品行業(yè)主要經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)保持了穩(wěn)定的增長，行業(yè)主營業(yè)務(wù)收入和利潤總額雙雙創(chuàng)歷史新高。“十三五”期間混凝土與水泥制品行業(yè)收入規(guī)模在整個(gè)建材工業(yè)中保持排名第一，主營業(yè)務(wù)收入在建材工業(yè)中的占比從“十三五”初的16%上升至“十三五”末的32%，是建材工業(yè)的重要支撐行業(yè)。
圖 6 2020年行業(yè)主要經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)變化情況（單位：億元）
Figure 6 Changes in major economic indicators of the industry in 2020 (unit: 100 million yuan RMB)
2020年混凝土與水泥制品行業(yè)銷售利潤率為4.88%，較上一年提高0.13個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，仍低于整體工業(yè)和建材工業(yè)平均水平。
圖 7 混凝土與水泥制品行業(yè)銷售利潤率仍然偏低
Figure 7 Sales profit margin of concrete and cement products industry is still on the low side
2020年受疫情影響全行業(yè)虧損企業(yè)面較上一年有所擴(kuò)大，期末應(yīng)收賬款凈額較上一年期末增幅較大，期末應(yīng)收賬款占主營業(yè)務(wù)收入比例達(dá)到38.24%，較上一年提高4.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
二、2021年行業(yè)發(fā)展展望
2020年的新冠疫情推動(dòng)了“百年未有之大變局”的加速變革，國際關(guān)系發(fā)生深刻變化；國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)加速構(gòu)建新發(fā)展格局，創(chuàng)新、協(xié)調(diào)、綠色、開放、共享的新發(fā)展理念更加深入人心。展望2021年，混凝土與水泥制品行業(yè)在準(zhǔn)確識(shí)變的基礎(chǔ)上將走上科學(xué)應(yīng)變、篤定創(chuàng)新的更加健康可持續(xù)的發(fā)展之路。
（一）疫情凸顯宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)韌性，支撐各產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)持續(xù)優(yōu)化
2020年全國統(tǒng)籌疫情防控和經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展取得了重大成果，GDP邁上百萬億元新臺(tái)階，同比增長2.3%，成為全球唯一實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)正增長的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體。分季度來看，一至四季度GDP增速分別為-6.8%、3.2%、4.9%和6.5%，經(jīng)濟(jì)超預(yù)期恢復(fù)，顯示出我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的強(qiáng)大韌性。
圖 8 2020年GDP增長及三大產(chǎn)業(yè)對GDP增長的貢獻(xiàn)率（單位：%）
Figure 8 GDP growth in 2020 and the contribution rate of the three major industries to GDP growth (unit:%)
從產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)來看，疫情對第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響較大，2020年第三產(chǎn)業(yè)GDP同比增速從上一年的7.2%下滑至2.1%，第二產(chǎn)業(yè)GDP同比增速從上一年的4.9%下滑至2.6%，第一產(chǎn)業(yè)GDP增速變化不大。2020年，經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)繼續(xù)優(yōu)化，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)對經(jīng)濟(jì)的支撐作用仍占主導(dǎo)地位，在GDP占比中達(dá)到54.5%，因此第三產(chǎn)業(yè)GDP的增長主導(dǎo)了全國經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的增長方向；第二產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)揮了較好的支撐作用，工業(yè)生產(chǎn)恢復(fù)較好同時(shí)結(jié)構(gòu)持續(xù)優(yōu)化，制造業(yè)穩(wěn)步增長奠定了良好的經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)基礎(chǔ)，高技術(shù)制造業(yè)繼續(xù)發(fā)揮新動(dòng)能優(yōu)勢拉高工業(yè)增加值增長速度。
圖 9 制造業(yè)帶動(dòng)工業(yè)增加值增速穩(wěn)步恢復(fù)（單位：%）
Figure 9 The manufacturing industry led the steady recovery of the growth rate of industrial value added (unit:%)
制造業(yè)回升明顯，2020年制造業(yè)增加值增長3.4%，高于整體規(guī)上工業(yè)增加值增長率0.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，有力帶動(dòng)了工業(yè)生產(chǎn)穩(wěn)步恢復(fù)。其中裝備制造業(yè)增加值增長6.6%，持續(xù)發(fā)揮重要支撐作用；高技術(shù)制造業(yè)增加值增長7.1%，新興產(chǎn)品增長強(qiáng)勁。
在此宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境下，混凝土與水泥制品行業(yè)順勢而為，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)將得到不斷優(yōu)化。
（二）優(yōu)化營商環(huán)境政策頻發(fā)，有利于企業(yè)更好發(fā)揮活力
近幾年，國家層面不斷出臺(tái)優(yōu)化營商環(huán)境的相關(guān)法規(guī)政策，我國營商環(huán)境明顯改善。2020年受疫情影響，企業(yè)困難加劇，亟需進(jìn)一步聚焦市場主體關(guān)切采取更多改革的辦法破解企業(yè)生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營中的堵點(diǎn)痛點(diǎn)，國務(wù)院辦公廳及時(shí)發(fā)布了《關(guān)于進(jìn)一步優(yōu)化營商環(huán)境更好服務(wù)市場主體的實(shí)施意見》，依托大數(shù)據(jù)、人工智能等互聯(lián)網(wǎng)科技提升企業(yè)經(jīng)營便利化。
在政策的持續(xù)推動(dòng)下，在構(gòu)建“國內(nèi)大循環(huán)為主體、國內(nèi)國際雙循環(huán)相互促進(jìn)”新發(fā)展格局的戰(zhàn)略下，國內(nèi)市場主體活力得到大力激發(fā)與提升?；炷僚c水泥制品行業(yè)民營企業(yè)數(shù)量眾多，在政策支持下將能夠更好地發(fā)揮市場經(jīng)濟(jì)主體的主動(dòng)性和積極性，為國內(nèi)大循環(huán)、國內(nèi)國際雙循環(huán)新發(fā)展格局做出貢獻(xiàn)。
（三）綠色發(fā)展深入推進(jìn)，固廢利用成為行業(yè)使命和新增長點(diǎn)
在綠色發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的持續(xù)推動(dòng)下，混凝土與水泥制品行業(yè)從資源保護(hù)、污染防治、節(jié)能減排、固廢處理和利用、生態(tài)修復(fù)等各個(gè)方面也在不斷踐行綠色發(fā)展理念，綠色發(fā)展早已成為全行業(yè)發(fā)展的共識(shí)。
2020年政府提出了碳峰值和碳中和承諾，2021年2月22日國務(wù)院發(fā)布《關(guān)于加快建立健全綠色低碳循環(huán)發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)體系的指導(dǎo)意見》（以下簡稱《意見》），提出到2025年綠色低碳循環(huán)發(fā)展的生產(chǎn)體系、流通體系、消費(fèi)體系初步形成；到2035年美麗中國建設(shè)目標(biāo)基本實(shí)現(xiàn)。《意見》提出“健全綠色低碳循環(huán)發(fā)展的生產(chǎn)體系”，首當(dāng)其沖的是推進(jìn)工業(yè)綠色升級，加快實(shí)施建材等行業(yè)的綠色化改造；促進(jìn)工業(yè)固體廢物綜合利用；全面推行清潔生產(chǎn)等等。
綠色低碳循環(huán)發(fā)展的相關(guān)政策必將大力推動(dòng)全社會(huì)尤其是重點(diǎn)行業(yè)低碳發(fā)展的步伐，混凝土與水泥制品行業(yè)減碳、用碳技術(shù)創(chuàng)新也將得到加速推動(dòng)；同時(shí)作為重要的利廢行業(yè)，混凝土與水泥制品行業(yè)的固廢綜合利用技術(shù)和應(yīng)用推廣也將得到大力發(fā)展，并帶來新的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。
（四）工業(yè)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)快速發(fā)展，行業(yè)智能制造轉(zhuǎn)型將取得突破
隨著國家不斷深入推進(jìn)工業(yè)與互聯(lián)網(wǎng)、信息化、智能化的融合，工業(yè)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù)不斷突破，2020年12月工信部印發(fā)《工業(yè)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)創(chuàng)新發(fā)展行動(dòng)計(jì)劃（2021-2023年）》，未來三年將是我國工業(yè)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)快速成長的關(guān)鍵期。
2020年9月，工信部辦公廳印發(fā)《建材工業(yè)智能制造數(shù)字轉(zhuǎn)型行動(dòng)計(jì)劃（2021-2023年）》提出了建材工業(yè)信息化、智能制造的發(fā)展目標(biāo)：到2023年，建材工業(yè)信息化基礎(chǔ)支撐能力顯著增強(qiáng)，智能制造關(guān)鍵共性技術(shù)取得明顯突破，重點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域示范引領(lǐng)和推廣應(yīng)用取得較好成效，全行業(yè)數(shù)字化、網(wǎng)絡(luò)化、智能化水平大幅提升，經(jīng)營成本、生產(chǎn)效率、服務(wù)水平持續(xù)改進(jìn)，推動(dòng)建材工業(yè)全產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈高級化、現(xiàn)代化、安全化，加快邁入先進(jìn)制造業(yè)。
針對重點(diǎn)細(xì)分行業(yè)提出了重點(diǎn)建設(shè)任務(wù)：混凝土及水泥制品行業(yè)要重點(diǎn)形成制造執(zhí)行管理、智能物流配送、在線質(zhì)量監(jiān)測的混凝土全產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈集成系統(tǒng)解決方案，以及集中攪拌分送、自動(dòng)成型控制、骨架焊接運(yùn)送、制品智能養(yǎng)護(hù)的水泥制品集成系統(tǒng)解決方案。利用新一代信息通信技術(shù)融合場景方向方面，提出要運(yùn)用建筑信息模型技術(shù)促進(jìn)建材和建筑無縫連接，大力發(fā)展部品化建材，實(shí)現(xiàn)建材全生命周期可追溯、可預(yù)測、可維護(hù)、可回收。
《建材工業(yè)智能制造數(shù)字轉(zhuǎn)型行動(dòng)計(jì)劃（2021-2023年）》提出了建材工業(yè)智能化、數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型總體目標(biāo)和具體建設(shè)任務(wù)，在國家不斷深化產(chǎn)融合作、加大政策支持的保障下，混凝土與水泥制品行業(yè)的數(shù)字化、智能化轉(zhuǎn)型將取得突破。
（五）響應(yīng)國家“十四五”規(guī)劃，創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動(dòng)行業(yè)高質(zhì)量發(fā)展全面升級
《混凝土與水泥制品行業(yè)“十四五”發(fā)展指南》（初稿）指出“十四五”是混凝土與水泥制品行業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)換發(fā)展動(dòng)能、改變發(fā)展方式，逐步轉(zhuǎn)向高端、高附加值、高質(zhì)量發(fā)展的重要時(shí)期，以5G、人工智能、云計(jì)算、大數(shù)據(jù)、新能源、數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)、共享經(jīng)濟(jì)等為代表的新一輪科技革命深入推進(jìn)，為行業(yè)高質(zhì)量發(fā)展提供了創(chuàng)新要素支撐。
可以預(yù)見“十四五”開局之際，混凝土與水泥制品行業(yè)將掀起惟實(shí)勵(lì)新的高潮：從制度和機(jī)制創(chuàng)新為切入點(diǎn)，以關(guān)鍵技術(shù)攻關(guān)為突破口，通過應(yīng)用創(chuàng)新建立更完善的“生態(tài)圈”，實(shí)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)品附加值的提升，最終實(shí)現(xiàn)全行業(yè)的創(chuàng)新全面升級、實(shí)現(xiàn)全行業(yè)的高端化發(fā)展，全面完成行業(yè)“十四五”發(fā)展目標(biāo)。
（六）2021年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長目標(biāo)確定，投資提速利好行業(yè)發(fā)展
2021年1月以來，全國各地兩會(huì)陸續(xù)召開，政府工作報(bào)告相繼出爐，提出了較高的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長目標(biāo)。2020年疫情對幾乎所有省市自治區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和固定資產(chǎn)投資都產(chǎn)生了較大影響，在基數(shù)較低的背景下，各省市制定的2021年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與固定資產(chǎn)投資增長目標(biāo)較2020年實(shí)際水平均出現(xiàn)明顯提升，例如湖北提出10%的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長目標(biāo)是底線要求、并會(huì)盡最大努力去爭取更好結(jié)果，廣西、海南、云南2021年固定資產(chǎn)投資預(yù)期增長目標(biāo)均超過10%。
2021全國兩會(huì)政府工作報(bào)告提出2021年重點(diǎn)工作要堅(jiān)持穩(wěn)中求進(jìn)的總基調(diào)，經(jīng)濟(jì)增速目標(biāo)為6%以上，保持宏觀政策連續(xù)性穩(wěn)定性可持續(xù)性，促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行在合理區(qū)間；堅(jiān)持?jǐn)U大內(nèi)需這個(gè)戰(zhàn)略基點(diǎn)，充分挖掘國內(nèi)市場潛力，擴(kuò)大有效投資，在更多領(lǐng)域讓社會(huì)資本進(jìn)得來、能發(fā)展、有作為。
2021年是“十四五”開局之年。可以預(yù)見，在構(gòu)建新發(fā)展格局、推動(dòng)高質(zhì)量發(fā)展的主題下，為確保經(jīng)濟(jì)增長目標(biāo)，促進(jìn)區(qū)域協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的重大工程建設(shè)以及涉及民生領(lǐng)域的水利、交通、老舊小區(qū)改造、城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)、鄉(xiāng)村振興建設(shè)及新基建投資力度將明顯加大，這將為2021年混凝土與水泥制品行業(yè)提供較好的需求空間，為企業(yè)創(chuàng)新升級提供保障和動(dòng)力，企業(yè)生產(chǎn)和經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模將穩(wěn)步提升，從而提高整個(gè)行業(yè)優(yōu)化升級發(fā)展的水平。
In 2020, China's concrete and cement products industry resolutely implemented the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee, shrived to do a good job in epidemic prevention and control, quickly returned to work and production, and actively participated in the construction of national and local anti-epidemic projects. At the same time, the whole industry adhered to the road of innovative development, green development and intelligent development, overcomed difficulties, accelerated the reform of the supply-side structure and high-quality development of the industry, and promoted the stable growth of the economic operation of the industry. The output of key products and major economic indicators hit the new high.
1 Review of the Economic Operation of the Industry in 2020
1.1 Overview of main output and economic indicators
(1) Main output
In 2020, the cumulative output of key products in the industry, such as commercial concrete, concrete pressure pipes and precast concrete piles, increased year-on-year and reached an all-time high (see table 1).
(2) Main economic indicators
In 2020, the main business income of large-scale concrete and cement products industrial enterprises totaled 1.790651 trillion yuan RMB, an increase of 3.8% over the last year, and the total profit totaled 87.333 billion yuan RMB, an increase of 6.67% over last year. Although the growth rate is significantly lower than in 2019, the economy has reached a new high.
1.2 The characteristics of the economic operation of the industry in 2020
(1) Overcoming difficulties and showing responsibility
In the first quarter, under the dual influence of the traditional off-season superimposed epidemic factors, the production and management of concrete and cement products enterprises were seriously restricted due to the delay of construction period, the hindrance of logistics and the rise of cost. In the second quarter, under the background of resolutely implementing the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee, scientifically coordinating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, doing a solid job of "six stability" and fully implementing the tasks of "six guarantees," the whole industry resumed work and ensured infrastructure construction at the first time, and quickly achieved a relatively high rate of resumption of work. At the end of April, the resumption rate of key precast concrete pile enterprises monitored by China concrete and cement-based products association reached 95%, and the key ready-mixed concrete enterprises reached 100%, the resumption rate of precast concrete components in key housing construction reached 100%.
During the fighting against the epidemic, concrete and cement products enterprises effectively guaranteed the construction of anti-epidemic projects in places such as Leishenshan and Huoshenshan Hospital in Wuhan, Xiaotangshan Hospital in Henan version, and Xi'an Public Health Center, highlighting the emergency guarantee function of the industry in emergencies.
(2) Effective force on the supply side to ensure the rapid recovery of the construction progress of the project
Affected by the epidemic, the cumulative output of key products shrank sharply in the first quarter of 2020. Since April, the production of key industry segments has been restored rapidly, and the monthly output of key products such as commercial concrete and precast concrete piles increased year-on-year. Since August, the cumulative output of individual products increased compared with the same period last year.
From the point of view of the production of subdivided industries, the production of ready-mixed concrete as the leading industry of capital construction has recovered rapidly, and the monthly output has maintained the trend of year-on-year growth since April, and the cumulative output has increased year-on-year since September. From a sub-regional point of view, in the six major regions of China, only North China showed a year-on-year decline, while the cumulative output of the other five regions increased year-on-year.
The market of precast concrete components for housing construction has recovered well, and the production of enterprises in April has recovered or even exceeded the level of the same period of the previous year, and the market demand in some areas such as Shaanxi, Shandong, Shanghai and Beijing is better than that in 2019. According to incomplete statistics, there are nearly 200 new precast concrete production enterprises in 2020, and there are more than 1200 prefabricated factories with a scale of more than 30, 000 cubic meters by the end of 2020.
At the beginning of the resumption of the work in precast concrete pile enterprises, there were still some difficulties in business management. With the gradual recovery of transportation and upstream and downstream industrial chains, the production progress of enterprises has improved rapidly. The market has obviously improved in the second half of the year. Due to the increased investment in national infrastructure projects in some areas, the demand for precast concrete piles is relatively strong, and the production of enterprises is developing rapidly. According to incomplete statistics, about 20 new precast concrete pile production plants were built in 2020. At the same time, due to the continuous restriction of environmental protection and energy conservation policies and the adjustment needs of urban planning, some precast concrete pile enterprises stopped production for rectification or even closed down from the market. On the whole, the production capacity of precast concrete piles is basically the same as that of the previous year.
The production and operation activities of concrete pipe and culvert enterprises generally recovered quickly in the epidemic situation, especially the key monitoring enterprises of the association increased to varying degrees compared with the previous year. According to incomplete statistics, there are about 5000 concrete pipe culvert production enterprises of various sizes in our country at present.
In the plight of the epidemic, the rapid recovery of industrial production effectively ensured the improvement of the progress of the project construction. In the first three quarters of 2020, the growth rate of cumulative fixed asset investment changed from negative to positive, and the annual fixed asset investment increased by 2.9% compared with the same period last year. The growth rate of investment in a single quarter continued to increase, and the growth rate of investment in a single quarter reached 15.67% in the fourth quarter.
In 2020, investment in the construction industry, which is closely related to the concrete and cement products industry, grew at the best rate in recent years, with an increase of 9.2% over the same period last year. Investment in road transport and water conservancy management industries in infrastructure investment grew slightly; and investment in real estate development grew rapidly, with an annual investment growth rate of 7.0% over the same period last year.
According to the breakdown data, the construction area of the construction industry increased by 3.68% in 2020 compared with the same period last year, which is 1.36% higher than that in 2019. Among the real estate development investment, the construction investment increased by 8.8% compared with the same period last year, which is the main force to promote the real estate development investment; the construction area of commercial housing increased by 3.7% over the same period last year. Investment in transportation fixed assets has achieved relatively rapid growth, and investment for the whole year is expected to grow by 7.1% compared with the same period last year, of which highway and waterway investment increased by 10.4%.
(3) The price has dropped slightly, and there is a large price difference between first-tier and non-first-tier cities
In 2020, the annual average price of commercial concrete was 437.5 yuan RMB per cubic meter, which was 7 yuan RMB per cubic meter lower than that of the previous year. The price of precast concrete components of housing construction in key monitoring enterprises of the association also declined compared with the previous year in 2020.
The price of raw materials declined in 2020, especially cement, began the second round of price rise in September and continued to decline slightly again until the end of December. The price of sand and gravel ended its downward trend in April and began to shock and pick up, it fluctuated again during the southern plum rain season from June to August, and entered the channel of price shock and slight recovery again in September.
Commercial concrete prices maintained a downward trend in the first half of the year. On the one hand, traditional off-season prices declined periodically in the first quarter; on the other hand, the epidemic led to limited demand and supply, and the accelerated decline in raw material prices in the second quarter led to a simultaneous decline in commercial concrete prices. The rise in the price of commercial concrete lags behind the price of raw materials for about a month, and the upward trend of prices was not established until after the National Day.
Association monitoring data show that there is an obvious price difference in commercial concrete prices between first-tier cities and non-first-tier cities across the country, and the average price in first-tier cities is about 57 yuan RMB per cubic meter higher than that in non-first-tier cities. From a regional point of view, the price difference between first-tier cities and non-first-tier cities in North China is the largest, reaching 62 yuan RMB per cubic meter, the smallest price difference is in the northwest region, and the price difference between first-tier cities and non-first-tier cities is about 20 yuan RMB per cubic meter.
Judging from the price trend of commercial concrete in first-tier cities and non-first-tier cities, the average price of first-tier cities in North China maintained a downward trend in the second half of 2020, while the prices in non-first-tier cities increased at the end of the year. The prices in first-tier cities in East China continued to rise slightly in the fourth quarter, while those in non-first-tier cities showed a trend of falling first and then rising. At the same time, it can also be seen that the activity of price fluctuation in first-tier cities is higher than that in non-first-tier cities, and the fluctuation range is greater.
At the end of 2020, the average price of commercial concrete in China is 433 yuan RMB per cubic meter, which is 18 yuan RMB per cubic meter lower than that at the beginning of the year. The average market prices of provincial capitals and municipalities directly under the Central Government at the end of 2020 and the prices at the beginning of the year are as table 2.
(4) The economic scale of the industry has reached a new high and has become an important support for the building materials industry
With the joint efforts of enterprises in the whole industry to overcome the adverse effects of the epidemic, the main economic indicators of the concrete and cement products industry maintained steady growth in 2020, both the main business income and total profits of the industry reached record highs. During the 13th five-year Plan period, the income scale of the concrete and cement industry ranked first in the whole building materials industry, and the proportion of main business income in the building materials industry rose from 16% at the beginning of the 13th five-year Plan to 32% at the end of the 13th five-year Plan, which is an important supporting industry for the building materials industry.
In 2020, the sales profit margin of the concrete and cement products industry was 4.88%, an increase of 0.13% over the previous year, still lower than the average level of the overall industry and building materials industry.
In 2020, the loss-making enterprises in the whole industry affected by the epidemic expanded compared with the previous year, and the net accounts receivable at the end of the period increased significantly compared with the end of the previous year, the proportion of accounts receivable to the main business income reached 38.24%, an increase of 4.7% over the previous year.
2 Prospects for the Development of the Industry in 2021
The epidemic of COVID-19 in 2020 promoted the accelerated change of "great changes not seen in a century", and profound changes took place in international relations. The domestic economic structure accelerated the construction of a new development pattern, and the new development concept of innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing was more deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. Looking forward to 2021, the concrete and cement products industry will embark on a more healthy and sustainable development road of scientific response and firm innovation on the basis of accurate understanding of change.
2.1 The epidemic highlights macroeconomic resilience and supports the continuous optimization of various industrial structures
Great achievements have been made in the prevention and control of epidemic situation and economic and social development throughout the country in 2020. GDP reached a new level of 100 trillion yuan RMB, an increase of 2.3% over the same period of last year, making it the only major economy in the world to achieve positive economic growth. From a quarterly point of view, the GDP growth rate from the first to the fourth quarter was-6.8%, 3.2%, 4.9% and 6.5% respectively, and the economy recovered faster than expected, showing the strong resilience of China's economic development.
From the perspective of industrial structure, the epidemic has a great impact on the tertiary industry. In 2020, the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the tertiary industry dropped to 2.1% from 7.2% in the previous year, and the GDP growth rate in the secondary industry dropped to 2.6% from 4.9% in the previous year, the GDP growth rate of the primary industry has not changed much. In 2020, the economic structure continued to be optimized, and the tertiary industry still played a leading role in supporting the economy, accounting for 54.5% of GDP. Therefore, the growth of GDP of the tertiary industry dominated the growth direction of the national economy. The secondary industry played a better supporting role, the industrial production recovered well while the structure was continuously optimized, the steady growth of the manufacturing industry laid a good foundation for economic recovery, and the high-tech manufacturing industry continued to give full play to the advantage of new momentum to increase the growth rate of industrial added value.
The manufacturing industry rebounded significantly, and the added value of the manufacturing industry grew by 3.4% in 2020, which was 0.6% higher than the overall growth rate of industrial added value, which strongly led to the steady recovery of industrial production. Among them, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry grew by 6.6%, which continued to play an important supporting role. The added value of the high-tech manufacturing industry grew by 7.1%, and the growth of emerging products was strong.
In this macroeconomic environment, the concrete and cement products industry conforms to the trend, and the industrial structure will be continuously optimized.
2.2 The frequent occurrence of policies to optimize the business environment will help enterprises to give full play to their vitality
In recent years, relevant regulations and policies to optimize the business environment have been continuously introduced at the national level, and the business environment in China has improved significantly. Affected by the epidemic in 2020, the difficulties of enterprises intensified, and there is an urgent need to further focus on the concerns of market participants and adopt more reform measures to solve the pain points in the production and operation of enterprises. the General Office of the State Council promptly issued The implementation opinions on further optimizing the business environment and better serving market entities, relying on internet technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence to improve business facilitation.
Under the continuous promotion of the policy and the strategy of building a new development pattern of "domestic cycle as the main body, domestic and international double cycles promote each other", the vitality of the main body of domestic market has been greatly stimulated and promoted. There are a large number of private enterprises in concrete and cement products industry, with the support of policies, they will be able to give better play to the initiative and enthusiasm of the main body of the market economy and contribute to the new development pattern of domestic and international circulation.
2.3 With the further promotion of green development, the utilization of solid waste has become the mission and new growth point of the industry
Under the continuous promotion of the green development strategy, the concrete and cement products industry is constantly implementing the concept of green development from the aspects of resource protection, pollution prevention, energy saving and emission reduction, solid waste treatment and utilization, ecological restoration and so on, green development has already become the consensus of the development of the whole industry.
The government put forward the promise of carbon peak and carbon neutralization in 2020, on February 22, 2021, the State Council issued The guidance on speeding up the establishment and improvement of a green and low-carbon circular development economic system (hereinafter referred to as the opinion). It is proposed that the production system, circulation system and consumption system of green and low-carbon circular development will be initially formed by 2025, and the goal of building a beautiful China will be basically achieved by 2035. The opinion put forward"perfecting the production system of green and low-carbon circular development",in which the first thing is to promote the green upgrading of industry, speed up the implementation of green transformation of building materials and other industries, promote the comprehensive utilization of industrial solid waste, and carry out cleaner production in an all-round way.
The relevant policies of green and low-carbon circular development will vigorously promote the low-carbon development of the whole society, especially the key industries, and the technological innovation of carbon reduction and carbon use in the concrete and cement products industry will also be accelerated. At the same time, as an important industry of waste utilization, the solid waste comprehensive utilization technology and application promotion of concrete and cement products industry will also be vigorously developed, and bring new economic growth.
2.4 With the rapid development of industrial internet, the transformation of intelligent manufacturing in the industry will make a breakthrough
With the continuous promotion of the integration of industry and internet, information technology and intelligence, and the continuous breakthroughs in industrial internet technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Industrial Internet innovation and development action plan (2021-2023) in December 2020, the next three years will be the key period for the rapid growth of China's industrial internet.
In September 2020, the General Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Action plan for digital transformation of intelligent manufacturing in building materials industry (2021-2023), which put forward the development goal of informatization and intelligent manufacturing in building materials industry, that is, by 2023, the basic supporting capacity of informatization in building materials industry has been significantly enhanced, the key common technologies of intelligent manufacturing have made obvious breakthroughs, and good results have been achieved in demonstration, guidance, promotion and application in key areas,the level of digitalization, networking and intelligence of the whole industry has been greatly improved, and the operating cost, production efficiency and service level have been continuously improved, promoting the upgrading, modernization and safety of the whole industrial chain of the building materials industry, and speeding up the entry into advanced manufacturing industry.
Aiming at the key subdivided industries, key construction tasks are put forward: The concrete and cement products industry should focus on forming a concrete industry chain integrated system solution of manufacturing execution management, intelligent logistics and distribution, and on-line quality monitoring, and the cement products integrated system solution of centralized mixing and distribution, automatic forming control, skeleton welding and transportation, and intelligent maintenance of products. In the aspect of using the new generation of information and communication technology to integrate the scene direction, it is proposed that the building information model technology should be used to promote the seamless connection between building materials and buildings, and vigorously develop compartmentalized building materials to achieve traceability, predictability, maintainability and recycling of the whole life cycle of building materials.
The action plan for digital transformation of intelligent manufacturing in building materials industry (2021-2023) puts forward the overall objectives and specific construction tasks of intelligent and digital transformation of building materials industry. Under the guarantee of deepening industry-finance cooperation and increasing policy support, the digital and intelligent transformation of concrete and cement products industry will make a breakthrough.
2.5 In response to the National 14th five-year Plan, innovation-driven industries will be upgraded in an all-round way
The Guide to the development of concrete and cement products industry during the 14th five-year Plan (the first draft) points out that the 14th five-year Plan is an important period for the concrete and cement products industry to change its development momentum and mode of development, and gradually shift to high-end, high value-added and high-quality development. A new round of scientific and technological revolution represented by 5G, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, big data, new energy, digital economy and sharing economy has been further promoted which provides innovative elements support for the high-quality development of the industry.
It can be predicted that at the beginning of the 14th five-year Plan, the concrete and cement products industry will set off the most exciting part, such as from the system and mechanism innovation as the starting point, to tackle key technologies as the breakthrough, through the application of innovation to establish a more perfect "ecosystem", to enhance the added value of products, and finally to achieve the overall upgrading of innovation and high-end development of the whole industry, and to fully complete the development goal of the industry's 14th five-year Plan.
2.6 The target of economic growth in 2021 will be set, the acceleration of investment will be good for the development of the industry
Since January 2021, the two conferences across the country have been held one after another, and the government work reports have been released one after another, putting forward higher economic growth targets. The epidemic in 2020 had a great impact on economic growth and fixed asset investment in almost all provinces, cities and autonomous regions. Under the background of a low base, the economic growth and fixed asset investment growth targets set by provinces and cities in 2021 are significantly higher than the actual level in 2020. For example, the economic growth target of 10% is the bottom line requirement and will do its best to strive for better results in Hubei. Fixed asset investment in Guangxi, Hainan and Yunnan is expected to grow by more than 10% in 2021.
Government work report of the two sessions of the National people's Congress in 2021 proposed that the key work in 2021 should adhere to the general tone of seeking progress in the midst of stability, with an economic growth target of more than 6%, maintain the continuity, stability and sustainability of macro policies, and promote economic operation in a reasonable range; adhere to the strategic basic point of expanding domestic demand, fully tap the potential of the domestic market, expand effective investment, and enable social capital to enter, develop and make a difference in more areas.
2021 is the opening year of the 14th five-year Plan. It can be predicted that under the theme of building a new development pattern and promoting high-quality development, in order to ensure the goal of economic growth, major projects to promote coordinated regional development, as well as water conservancy, transportation, renovation of old residential areas, urbanization, rural revitalization and new infrastructure investment in the fields of people's livelihood will be significantly increased, which will provide a better demand space for the concrete and cement products industry in 2021, and provide guarantee and motivation for the innovation and upgrading of enterprises. Enterprise production and economic scale will increase steadily, so as to improve the level of optimization and upgrading development of the whole industry.
文章來源：原文參見《混凝土世界》2021年03期 P8~P20
Article source:See the original text in Concrete World, No. 03, P8~P20, 2021